The Myth of the Sure Bet


The Sure Bet, the safe bet. A term that already just pronounce it increases the salivation of a player. Place “bet” and “safe” in the same sentence appears in the eyes of common sense, an oxymoron. Yet it is technically possible to bet on an event that has three possible outcomes (say, victory, defeat, draw, but in rare cases it can also work with the only chance of victory or defeat) with mathematical certainty that you will win. Mathematically possible, in fact.

What do you need to organize a safe bet

Extremely fast internet connection

PC or notebook performance (in sure bet speed is everything): banned tablet, mobile phones, netbooks, micropc

An active account with at least three bookmakers online

A lot ‘of money on each of the three accounts

Calculator (you can also do the math in your head, if you’re good with numbers …)

If you do not have even one of the items listed above, it will be extremely difficult, even unlikely to place a safe bet.

The formula for the sure bet and how it works

Even if you are new to the sports gambling, you know that a bookmaker calculates the odds of the outcome of an event so that it is impossible to bet profitably on all possible outcomes.

For example, in a tennis match, the odds of the bookmakers will be constructed so that it is not possible for you to bet on the victory of both athletes, the same or different amount, and make some money anyway. As well as  in the case of football, basketball, and other sports.

The operation of the sure bet uses the differences between the decimal odds offered by different bookmakers for outcome of the same event. In mathematical terms, when the sum of the inverses of the two portions is less than 1 (see practical example).

That’s why it was suggested that you first have an account with at least three bookmakers.

Practical Example

Tennis match: Murray vs Roddick

Murray is given by winning William Hill with a share of 1.80

Roddick is given Bwin of winning a share of 2.45

We apply the formula of the sure bet

(1/quota1) + (1/quota2) <1

(1/1, 80) + (1/2, 45) = 0.9367 <1

Since the sum is less than 1, we find ourselves faced with a sure bet.

At this point you must decide the total investment, and divide it between the two possible outcomes. Generally, you will bet less on the highest elevation, and more on the lower level. Let’s say we want to invest 1,000 euro in the event.

Murray winning (1 / 1.80) / 0.9367 = 0.5041 * 1000 = 555.55 € * 1.80 = € 1,000 (gain 0)

Roddick winning (1 / 2.45) / 0.9367 = 0.4967 * 1000 = 435.75 € * 2.45 = € 1,067 (gain 67 euro)

We then found the two sums limit within which the gain will be 0 (however, no loss) or greater than 0.

Then divide the potential gain (given by Roddick winning) in 2 and add it to bet that would gain 0 in case of victory.

67/2 = € 33.50

The bet on Murray will then be € 555.55 + € 33.50 = € 589 (approx.)

So we will have our final sure bet:

Final investment: 1.o35, 50 €

Murray winning (1 / 1.80) / 0.9367 = 0.5041 * 1000 = 589.00 € * 1.80 = € 1,060

Roddick winning (1 / 2.45) / 0.9367 = 0.4967 * 1000 = 435.75 € * 2.45 = € 1,067

Ergo realize a profit, regardless on the outcome of the meeting.

Why is the sure bet it works in theory and much less in practice?

Now that we have seen that the safe bet is based on its bases made real, and on the Internet plenty of  information on the sure bet is (methods, software, etc..), You may be wondering why not all the punters are rich.

Simple, because the sure bet has more practical problems than advantages. So as to discourage most of the time even the most hardened punters.

First of all, it requires large sums, distributed between different bookmakers. Unless we are content to win a few cents, a sure bet can “lock” even several hundred Euros, often thousands.

To combat gambling addiction many bookmakers limit in any way transfers and charge accounts to a certain number per month or per day. You might have to reload an account with a bookmaker to complete a sure bet started on other boookmaker and seeing the road blocked by the system.

Is required speed and quickness to bet almost like a superhuman. In time, after calculations of dozens of units in as many events, you will find a sure bet, it is common for a few seconds before one of the bookmakers have changed the odds.

Connected to the reasoning above, the extreme volatility of the shares and their frequent change by the bookmaker. Anyone who bet it will have faced  a rejected bet because while in the latter decided that the amount to bet the share in the meantime had changed. What if after you’ve already placed  € 1,000 on a three-event outcomes, the latest bookmaker you changed the quote under your nose? Trust me, it happens very frequently.

The bookies know of the possibility of sure bet and a lot of gambler chasing it and behave accordingly. If one of their records systems in a short period of time, play too many “suspects” (eg, a large number of punters tip on a minor and weak team victory over a very strong one), immediately lowers the share. Automatically. Then the required speed is not just for scrubbing systems of the bookmaker, but need to be faster than the other punters.

In conclusion

The sure bet exist, under a strictly mathematical profile. However, the conditions that poses for its realization in reality make it unlikely to happen, even risky. Where the risk, however, is not given by the inability to predict with certainty the outcome of a sporting event, but the inability to predict the sudden change of odds, the timing of transfer money between an account and the other, the stability of the connection, the speed and reliability of the PC. Paradoxically, the sure bet is a bet in a bet  and does not make it less of a risk than other techniques of  betting.

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